Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 2 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
One other detection within 20 km in the last 24 hours, <1 km from here.
This alert expired on 13 September 2026 at 02:15 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 18th strongest of the 24 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 17 July 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 5 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flash Flood Warning issued September 12 at 6:41PM MST until September 12 at 7:15PM MST by NWS Flagstaff AZ
An estimated 15,345 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 17 July 2026
- August 12, 2026 · score 34 · 4.0 km
- July 21, 2026 · score 34 · 10.3 km
- July 25, 2026 · score 34 · 13.7 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 28 out of 100, at 81 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Computed under scoring rules v4. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 28 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 81% |
| Coordinates | 34.2510, -111.2681 |
| Nearest City | Payson (6 km) |
| Population Exposed | 15.3K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-09-13T01:41:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.c5a17b0f726bf3409960432047024fb1034f75ce.001.1 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flash Flood Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Yavapai, AZ; Gila, AZ; Navajo, AZ |
| Headline | Flash Flood Warning issued September 12 at 6:41PM MST until September 12 at 7:15PM MST by NWS Flagstaff AZ |
| Expires | 2026-09-12T19:15:00-07:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Flagstaff AZ |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 2 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.c5a17b0f726bf3409960432047024fb1034f75ce.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.a3c3aad7e8b5f73499378b1e8208b7261d806f7f.001.1"] |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
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